The Rise of “Utang na Hindi na Bayaran”: What NPLs Mean for Filipinos

The Rise of “Utang na Hindi na Bayaran”: What NPLs Mean for Filipinos

When you hear that 3.4% of every peso lent in the Philippines is now “dead money,” it sounds extreme — but that’s exactly what the latest banking data shows. As of July 2025, the NPL ratio has ticked up to 3.40%, representing ₱535.4 billion in loans that borrowers failed to pay on time. In simpler terms: these are utang na hindi na bayaran, and they’re becoming a growing concern for banks, borrowers, and the broader economy.

This guide breaks down what non-performing loans are, why they’re rising again, and — most importantly — how Filipino borrowers can protect themselves from becoming part of the statistics.

What Counts as a Non-Performing Loan (NPL)?

Under Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) rules, a loan becomes “non-performing” when:

The borrower fails to pay principal or interest for 90 days or more.

Banks then classify these loans into buckets depending on severity:


NPL Category Meaning Required Bank Provisioning
Substandard Weak capacity to pay; 90+ days overdue 10% of loan value
Doubtful High probability of loss 50%
Loss Considered uncollectible 100%

Provisioning means banks must set aside money as a buffer — meaning less profit and tighter lending standards.

NPL Trend Lines: 2020–2025

After peaking at 4.51% in 2021 (pandemic effects), the national NPL ratio steadily dropped to 3.19% in 2023. But by mid-2025, the trend has reversed. The July 2025 figure of 3.40% marks a slow but noticeable climb.

Voice-search friendly question:
“Is the NPL ratio in the Philippines rising?”
Yes — it increased by 0.06 percentage points since June 2025.

If you typically embed charts, you can include the BSP’s line graph here (alt-text: Philippine NPL ratio 2020–2025).

Why NPLs Are Creeping Up Again in 2025

Several stress points are converging:

1. Consumer Lending Boom

Credit-card and BNPL loans surged 23% YoY, but this also created more pockets of default — especially among first-time users who overestimated repayment capacity.

2. Agriculture & SME Pressures

Typhoons, rising fertilizer prices, and weaker farm output have caused many agri borrowers to fall behind. SMEs dealing with supply-chain inflation experience similar repayment delays.

3. High Underemployment

With 14% of the workforce still in part-time or unstable gig roles, salary delays lead to missed amortizations.

4. Peso Volatility

Borrowers with USD-denominated or FX-linked loans are paying around 8% more compared to 2024 because of currency swings.

Impact Map – Who Gets Hurt When NPLs Rise?

A. Banks

  • Higher provisions pull down profits — every 1 ppt rise in the NPL ratio shaves off roughly 12% of the sector’s ROE.

  • Bank stocks respond quickly: when NPLs exceed 4%, listed banks tend to trade at 0.9× book value, versus 1.3× when NPLs stay below 3%.

B. Borrowers

This is where it gets personal.

  • Credit score damage: A tagged NPL stays visible in the Credit Information Corporation (CIC) for three years.

  • Higher interest rates: Lenders apply risk-based pricing. A borrower who defaulted once may see +150–300 bps added to their next loan.

C. The Wider Economy

  • Loan slowdown: S&P data shows that a 1 ppt increase in NPLs results in a 1.8 ppt decline in loan growth the following year.

  • GDP drag: Every ₱100B stuck in bad loans removes roughly 0.4% from household consumption — the backbone of PH GDP.

How the BSP Is Responding

To contain the slow rise in NPLs, regulators have strengthened rules:

  1. Stricter Underwriting
    Digital lenders now face a 40% debt-service-to-income (DSTI) cap (Circular 1198).

  2. Forward-Looking Expected Credit Loss (ECL) Model
    Banks must book 12-month credit loss upfront, even for performing loans.

  3. Forbearance Windows
    Borrowers affected by calamity or job loss may restructure loans with a 60-day grace period without being tagged as NPL.

Borrower Guide: How to Avoid Becoming an NPL Statistic

Even good borrowers fall behind because of emergencies, job loss, or unpredictable bills. Here’s a practical, PH-focused set of strategies:

1. Keep DSTI below 30%

Check your ratio using the free BSP/DOF calculator (dof.gov.ph). If loan payments eat more than a third of your income, the risk of default jumps significantly.

2. Build a Six-Month Emergency Fund

High-yield digital banks like Maya (4% p.a.) help grow a safety cushion that protects your loans.

3. Automate All Payments

GCash Auto-Debit and bank schedulers reduce missed payments — data shows they cut “forgetfulness defaults” by 35%.

4. Request Restructuring Early

Banks approve 78% of restructuring requests before an account hits NPL status, but only 29% after tagging.

5. Pull Your CIC Credit Report Annually

You get one free report every 12 months. Monitoring your file helps you dispute errors before applying for new credit.

2026 Outlook: Will NPLs Keep Rising?

Most analysts — including BSP — expect NPLs to stay within 3.2% to 3.5% next year if remittances remain strong and employment stabilizes.

But risks remain:

  • Upside risk: Another El Niño cycle or oil shock could push agriculture and transport defaults above 4%.

  • Downside risk: Faster job creation and AI-based collection tools could bring NPLs down to below 2.8%, the healthiest level since 2019.

Summary

Non-performing loans in the Philippines are quietly rising again in 2025, with a 3.40% NPL ratio signaling growing financial pressure on consumers, SMEs, and banks. Even a single missed payment can hurt your credit score, raise future interest rates, and limit access to financing. With underemployment, volatile incomes, and higher borrowing costs, Filipino borrowers need to stay proactive: automate payments, manage debt levels carefully, and request restructuring early. If you’re planning to borrow, platforms like LoanOnline help you compare